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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Miami Marlins (14-18) host the Milwaukee Brewers (21-12) Saturday for Game 2 of their 3-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET at LoanDepot park Friday. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Marlinsodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won a pitcher's duel in the series opener 2-1 Friday as Marlins SP Pablo Lopez only gave up a leadoff solo HR to Brewers 2B Kolten Wong and Brewers SP Corbin Burnes' only ER was a solo shot in the bottom of the 3rd.

But, Miami relief pitcher Anthony Bender walked in a Milwaukee baserunner in the top of the 9th to key the Brew Crew's victory.

Brewers at Marlins projected starters

LHP Eric Lauer vs. LHP Trevor Rogers

Lauer 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 in 29 2/3 IP over 5 starts.

  • Last start: Win 6-3 at the Atlanta Braves Friday with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 2 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 8 K.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 1.09 FIP with a .155/.182/.224 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 33.3 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 27 plate appearances (PA).

Rogers 1-4 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 27 IP over 6 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Miami's 3-2 loss at the San Diego Padres Sunday with 5-scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER), 10 H, 2 BB and 13 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Brewers: 2.88 FIP with a .212/.239/.310 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 28.1 K% and 90.7 mph EV in 32 PA.

Brewers at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML) : Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U) : 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Marlins 2

Money line

BET the BREWERS (-130) because they hit lefty pitching better than Miami's and Lauer's pitching peripherals, both on the year and vs. Saturday's opponent, are more impressive than Rogers'. Miami's lineup ranks 26th (83), 27th in wOBA (.279) and 29th in BB/K rate (0.28), according to FanGraphs.

Also, Rogers pitches better on the road for whatever reason. Rogers' career home winning percentage (30.0%), ERA (5.08) and WHIP (1.46) are all worse than his road marks.

Rogers' whiff rate, out-of-the-zone swing rate, K% and BB% are all down from last season, per Statcast. The opposite is true of Lauer's 2022 advanced pitching analytics, in fact, his K% is up 12.3% from last season and Lauer's whiff rate has improved by 8.0%.

TAKE the BREWERS (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Brewers -1.5 (+140) isn't a big enough payout considering Milwaukee is 3-11 RL as road favorites and the Marlins +1.5 (-170) are 3-1 RL as home underdogs, which includes Friday's 2-1 loss to the Brew Crew.

PASS.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) because both Rogers' home stats and 2022 numbers should progress up to his career averages. The Marlins 2-4 O/U in Rogers' 5 starts this season despite his 5.00 ERA because their bullpen is solid.

Also, the same could be said about Milwaukee's bullpen but the lineup also struggles vs. left-handed pitching. The Brewers are 20th in both BB/K rate (0.38) and wRC+ (95), per FanGraphs.

Finally, the weather forecast is predicting 10 mph winds blowing in from centerfield at LoanDepot park, which reduces the chances of long-balls.

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