On Emmy night, will the best shows win?
'Mad Men,' 'Modern Family' among favorites.
The nominations for the 62nd Primetime Emmy Awards, broadcast tonight on NBC, held few surprises. Where were the unlikely nods we got last year the Sarah Silvermans and "Flight of the Conchords"? The only real surprise this year is who didn't get nominated.
NBC's awesome "Community" failed to be recognized in a single category after delivering the funniest half-hour of television in years with paintball episode "Modern Warfare."
Zach Gilford, whose moving performance as Matt Saracen on an episode of DirecTV/NBC's "Friday Night Lights" titled "The Son" led to a Facebook campaign for a nod, was passed over, though co-stars Connie Britton and Kyle Chandler were finally recognized.
FX's "Sons of Anarchy" was shut out, leading star Ron Perlman to respond "(expletive) 'em" to voting members of the Academy at this summer's Television Critics Association press tour.
It's hard to disagree with Perlman. Tonight's outing doesn't seem to have a lot of potential for OMG moments, unless host Jimmy Fallon gives an awesome performance.
You made your picks for winners in the top Emmy categories at austin360.com. Here are your choices and mine:
Outstanding Comedy Series
- ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm,' HBO
- ‘Glee,' FOX
- ‘Modern Family,' ABC
- ‘Nurse Jackie,' Showtime
- ‘The Office,' NBC
- ‘30 Rock,' NBC
Should win: ‘Modern Family'
Will win: ‘Modern Family'
Possible spoiler: ‘Glee'
Your pick: ‘Glee'
The freshman season of "Modern Family" was not only the funniest comedy series of the year, it was the funniest comedy series in many years. "Glee" is riding a wave of popularity, but its season was uneven and, frankly, not that funny. (I think this could be one of those years where the show that gets the most nominations — "Glee" — walks away with relatively few awards.) The long shot is "Curb Your Enthusiasm," an acquired taste that rebounded last year with a pitch-perfect "Seinfeld" reunion arc.
Outstanding Drama Series
- ‘Breaking Bad,' AMC
- ‘Dexter,' Showtime
- ‘The Good Wife,' CBS
- ‘Lost,' ABC
- ‘Mad Men,' AMC
- ‘True Blood,' HBO
Should win: ‘Mad Men'
Will win: ‘Mad Men'
Possible spoiler: ‘The Good Wife'
Your pick: ‘Mad Men'
OK, the third season of "Mad Men" was not its best, but stellar individual episodes ("Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency," "Shut the Door, Have a Seat") lifted it above the seriously strong competition. Still, "Breaking Bad" or "Dexter" could easily stage an upset and "The Good Wife" could spoil if the Academy decides it wants to prove that a network show, even a first-season network show, can still take this category. First-time nominee "True Blood" is a real long shot.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
- ‘Glee,' FOX: Lea Michele
- ‘The New Adventures Of Old Christine,' CBS: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
- ‘Nurse Jackie,' Showtime: Edie Falco, left
- ‘Parks And Recreation,' NBC: Amy Poehler
- ‘30 Rock,' NBC: Tina Fey
- ‘United States Of Tara,' Showtime: Toni Collette
Should win: Edie Falco
Will win: Edie Falco
Possible spoiler: Toni Collette
Your pick: It's a three-way tie! Louis-Dreyfus, Falco, Fey
I see the "Glee" freeze-out continuing here. Poehler's show rebounded but suffered in the ratings and is being held for midseason by NBC — not a good sign. Collette could repeat, but the second season of "Tara" was not as strong as the first "Jackie," so Showtime could see another freshman winner here. Louis-Dreyfus, in the canceled "Christine," is a long shot.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- ‘The Closer,' TNT: Kyra Sedgwick
- ‘Damages,' FX: Glenn Close
- ‘Friday Night Lights,' DirecTV/NBC: Connie Britton
- ‘The Good Wife,' CBS: Julianna Margulies
- ‘Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,' NBC: Mariska Hargitay
- ‘Mad Men,' AMC: January Jones
Should win: Connie Britton
Will win: Julianna Margulies
Possible spoiler: Kyra Sedgwick
Your pick: Britton
Britton should take this award for a stellar season and a great run as Tami Taylor on "Friday Night Lights," but I predict the Academy will honor veteran Margulies for her good work on "The Good Wife." Sedgwick could be a spoiler, but only if Academy members actually watched her stellar submission reel. The other three nominated actresses — including previous winner Close — don't stand a chance.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
- ‘The Big Bang Theory,' CBS: Jim Parsons
- ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm,' HBO: Larry David
- ‘Glee,' FOX: Matthew Morrison
- ‘Monk,' USA: Tony Shalhoub
- ‘The Office,' NBC: Steve Carell
- ‘30 Rock,' NBC: Alec Baldwin
Should win: Jim Parsons
Will win: Alec Baldwin
Possible spoiler: Tony Shalhoub
Your pick: Parsons
Baldwin is a repeat winner in this category, and co-star Jack Donaghy — with beefier story lines — was hilarious this season. However, there was strong buzz for the deserving Parsons last year and that loss could nab him a trophy for Sheldon before that character fully morphs into the Fonzie of "Big Bang Theory," ruining any real chances for a win. Shalhoub is an inexplicable Emmy favorite, and the "Monk" finale makes him a strong spoiler contender. Morrison and David are long shots.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- ‘Breaking Bad,' AMC: Bryan Cranston
- ‘Dexter,' Showtime: Michael C. Hall
- ‘Friday Night Lights,' DirecTV/NBC: Kyle Chandler
- ‘House,' FOX: Hugh Laurie
- ‘Lost,' ABC: Matthew Fox
- ‘Mad Men,' AMC: Jon Hamm
Should win: Michael C. Hall
Will win: Jon Hamm
Possible spoilers: Kyle Chandler, Matthew Fox
Your pick: Chandler
This category has some of the best talent, and it is the most difficult to predict. Cranston has taken the trophy twice and it feels as if it's time for a change. Although Hall really brought it as "Dexter," I'm not sure the Academy is yet ready to throw the honor to a serial killer character. I predict Hamm will finally take the trophy this year, unless sentimental voters hand it to Fox for the final season of "Lost" or Chandler, finally nominated for "Friday Night Lights." Hugh Laurie is a long shot.
Outstanding Reality-Competition Programming
- ‘The Amazing Race,' CBS
- ‘American Idol,' FOX
- ‘Dancing With the Stars,' ABC
- ‘Project Runway,' Lifetime
- ‘Top Chef,' Bravo
Should win: ‘The Amazing Race'
Will win: ‘The Amazing Race'
Possible spoiler: ‘Dancing With The Stars'
Your pick: ‘Top Chef'
Actually, I don't think there's much chance of a spoiler here, but "Dancing With the Stars" brings the ratings. "The Amazing Race" is getting a bit long in the tooth, but it remains the smartest and most compelling reality program on television.
62nd Primetime Emmy Awards