One of the most engaging components of tracking the Buzzmeter stats each year comes early on when looking at the field of performers and trying to get a bead on what one or two acts will jump up a level in terms of stature and awareness. Alumni of that group include MGMT, Phoenix, the Black Keys and Foster The People all have mostly capitalized on their big-time festival bows and stayed in the music biz big leagues. Those acts were all pretty easy to pick out from the crowd early on with buzz numbers that clearly pointed to their ascendancy. This year, however, has no early favorite, but we'll get to the contenders after a quick run through this week's numbers.

The Black Keys ceded some of their lead but are still comfortably ahead of Sunday headliners Red Hot Chili Peppers, while the Shins and Jack White leap over Weezer to complete a top five that looks a lot like what we'd have expected going into this year.

A couple of swaps in the middle and some jostling in the bottom five spots, most notably from Gotye who jumps four spots. After the year he's had with "Somebody That I Used To Know" he'll likely wind up in the top 20.

As for 2012's up-and-comers you have got M83, Alabama Shakes, the Avett Brothers and Two Door Cinema Club knocking around the top 10 and the Lumineers and Austin's Gary Clark Jr. coming up from further behind.

M83 feels like a slow burn indie act with great songs but will hit a definite ceiling in terms of wider appeal. Soul rockers Alabama Shakes are a perfect ACL Fest band and capping off what in sports terminology would be a monster rookie year. But they feel like a known quantity who aren't going to catch many folks by surprise.

Two Door Cinema Club made an impressive gain this week (up 11 percent, while the Lumineers added almost 19 percent to their total), but with a synth-heavy dance-rock sound, they likely go in the same basket as M83.

All of which leaves the Avett Brothers who, while not the most exciting pick for this year's breakout act, do have a lot of the trademarks you'd look for. They've performed solid spots at the fest before, and after a few years away from the limelight they're set to release the new "The Carpenter" next Tuesday. It's as solid and tuneful a collection of roots rock as you could want from the North Carolina combo, and if it gets any radio or commercial traction at all, the band's 6:15 p.m. Sunday set could be one of the biggest of the weekend.

The Buzz numbers

The Black Keys 13,231

Red Hot Chili Peppers 11,963

Florence + The Machine 11,131

Jack White 9,426

The Shins 9,239

Weezer 9,136

M83 8,084

The Avett Brothers 6,886

Alabama Shakes 6,556

Two Door Cinema Club 6,541

The Roots 6,295

Metric 6,055

Neil Young & Crazy Horse 6,015

The Civil Wars 5,660

BASSNECTAR 5,208

Tegan and Sara 5,189

AVICII 4,624

Childish Gambino 4,619

Delta Spirit 4,413

Kimbra 4,345

Gotye 4,320

The Lumineers 4,253

Andrew Bird 4,166

Thievery Corporation 4,078

Gary Clark Jr. 4,016