MUSIC

Our Grammy Award picks

Music industry will try to forget its woes tonight.

By Joe Gross
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Thursday, February 07, 2008

As the Grammy awards — and the show music critics love to hate — mark their 50th anniversary, they seem more irrelevant than ever.

The recording industry is in a serious recession. Album sales are down 15 percent from 2006. Hip-hop, the most important genre of the past 20 years, is down a whopping 30 percent. Last year's top sellers were a holiday album by Josh Groban, the soundtrack to "High School Musical 2" and an Eagles album available exclusively at Wal-Mart.

At the very least, the Grammys are a good excuse to remind consumers about some records that came out in 2007.

Kanye West, who most recently made headlines when his mother died in a plastic surgery disaster, received a leading eight Grammy nominations. Troubled singer Amy Winehouse, who may or may not appear at the ceremony, received six. The Foo Fighters, Jay-Z, Timbaland, Justin Timberlake and T-Pain each had five nods.

If all goes according to plan, the 50th Grammy Awards should include performances from powerhouses such as Rihanna, Carrie Underwood and Alicia Keys. Winehouse was scheduled to appear, but that seems in question, what with the rehab and the flakiness. But look for a performance of the Beatles' "A Day in the Life," as brought to you by the casts of the movie "Across the Universe" and "Love" by Cirque du Soleil. (Just let that last one marinate a second.)

Here we handicap a baker's dozen categories; tune in tonight to see who takes home the little gold gramophones.

Record of the Year

'Irreplaceable' performed by Beyoncé

'The Pretender' performed by Foo Fighters

'Umbrella' performed by Rihanna, featuring Jay-Z

'What Goes Around ... Comes Around' performed by Justin Timberlake

'Rehab' performed by Amy Winehouse

"Umbrella" embodied themoment like no other record on this list, from the slick R&B production to the almost rockish song structure and the ruthlessly barbed "Ella ella ella hey hey" hook to the inevitable cameo from Jay-Z. I also am in favor of "What Goes Around ... Comes Around," a terrific JT song in what seems to be an unstoppably long line of them. Yet, we'd like to see "Umbrella" pull it off.

Album of the Year

'Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace,' Foo Fighters

'These Days,' Vince Gill

'River: The Joni Letters,' by Herbie Hancock

'Graduation,'Kanye West

'Back To Black,' Amy Winehouse

Wait, people still listen to albums? Kidding, kidding. The Foo Fighters' album isn't quite good enough, Vince Gill's isn't as fun as, say, any three Taylor Swift songs, and only voters and hard-core fans heard the Herbie Hancock. West feels like a wild card — "Graduation" isn't the equal of either of his previous two albums, but he had a terrible year in his personal life, which might generate some sympathy votes. Which leaves "Back To Black," an album that has that surefire combo of old-school songcraft, a wicked-good voice and a charismatic loony singing all of it. We're going with Winehouse.

Song of the Year

'Before He Cheats' by Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins, performed by Carrie Underwood

'Hey There Delilah' by Tom Higgenson, performed by Plain White T's

'Like A Star' by Corinne Bailey Rae, performed by Corinne Bailey Rae

'Rehab' by Amy Winehouse, performed by Amy Winehouse

'Umbrella' by Shawn Carter, Kuk Harrell, Terius 'Dream' Nash and Christopher Stewart, performed by Rihanna, featuring Jay-Z

This is a songwriter's award, so it's a toss-up between "Rehab" and "Umbrella," two stellar pop songs in their original version that might be fun to hear, I don't know, Richard Thompson or Willie Nelson cover. "Like A Star" feels too slight, "Before He Cheats" too rote, "Hey There Delilah" too annoying. "Rehab" by a cocaine-filled nose.

Best New Artist

Feist

Ledisi

Paramore

Taylor Swift

Amy Winehouse

This will probably go to Winehouse, what with the acres of entertainment she provided us this year in music and on gossip sites, but it should go to Swift, whose debut album would be a mind-blower even if she weren't just 18.

Best Pop Vocal Album

'Lost Highway,' Bon Jovi

'The Reminder,' Feist

'It Won't Be Soon Before Long,' Maroon 5

'Memory Almost Full,' Paul McCartney

'Back To Black,' Amy Winehouse

Love to see this go to Winehouse, as she's the best singer qua singer here, but this category features the Beatles factor, which throws the whole category out of whack.

Best Electronic/Dance Album

'We Are The Night,' The Chemical Brothers

'(Cross),' Justice

'Sound Of Silver,' LCD Soundsystem

'We Are Pilots,' Shiny Toy Guns

'Elements Of Life,' Tiësto

We include this category because "Sound of Silver" is one of the year's best albums, period. Of course it should win this. It should also be up for album of the year, which it should win. Then we need to put a silver statue of LCD main man/top-flight Bowie imitator James Murphy in Times Square.

Best Rock Song

'Come On,' by Lucinda Williams, performed by Lucinda Williams

'Icky Thump' by Jack White, performed by the White Stripes

'It's Not Over' by Chris Daughtry, Gregg Wattenberg, Mark Wilkerson and Brett Young, performed by Daughtry

'The Pretender' by Foo Fighters, performed by Foo Fighters

'Radio Nowhere' by Bruce Springsteen, performed by Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band

It took four people to write "It's Not Over"? At least "The Pretender" came from the guys in the band. "Come On" is overrated, and "Icky Thump" is fun but awkward in spots. "Radio Nowhere" seems like the industry fave, but it's also the best song on here and deserves to win.

Best Rock Album

"Daughtry" by Daughtry

"Revival" by John Fogerty

"Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace" by Foo Fighters

"Magic" by Bruce Springsteen

"Sky Blue Sky" by Wilco

A tough read. "Daughtry" has moved the most units. Fogerty is the '60s legend, Foo Fighters already have picked up two awards in this category and even Wilco fans were on the fence about this one. But "Magic" is Springsteen's best album since his astounding '80s run. We're pulling for him.

Best Alternative Music Album

"Alright, Still" by Lily Allen

"Neon Bible" by Arcade Fire

"Volta" by Bjork

"Wincing The Night Away" by the Shins

"Icky Thump" by the White Stripes

The Shins' album can be reduced to a great single ("Phantom Limb"), and Lily Allen is a popster. "Icky Thump" is a blast that sounds awful on CD, and "Volta" is strong but almost too eclectic. Which leaves the critical darling "Neon Bible," which deserves the nod, but might be doomed by being on an actual indie label.

Best Rap Solo Performance

"The People" by Common

"I Get Money" by 50 Cent

"Show Me What You Got" by Jay-Z

"Big Things Poppin' (Do It)" by T.I.

"Stronger" by Kanye West

We're pulling for "I Get Money" for two reasons: the snap in 50's voice when he half-barks, half-declares "I run New York" on this song's hook, and the look on Jay-Z and West's face if he wins.

Best Rap Album

"Finding Forever" by Common

"Kingdom Come" by Jay-Z

"Hip Hop Is Dead" by Nas

"T.I. vs T.I.P." by T.I.

"Graduation" by Kanye West

A weirdly underwhelming category — none of these is classic; every artist has made at least one, if not two albums, that are better than their current offering. We kind of want to declare "no winner" and tell everyone to try harder next time. We also want to give it to West just to get it over with.

Best Country Song

"Before He Cheats" by Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins, performed by Carrie Underwood

"Give It Away" by Bill Anderson, Buddy Cannon and Jamey Johnson, performed by George Strait

"I Need You" by Tony Lane and David Lee, performed by Tim McGraw and Faith Hill

"If You're Reading This" by Tim McGraw, Brad Warren and Brett Warren, performed by Tim McGraw

"Long Trip Alone" by Brett Beavers, Dierks Bentley and Steve Bogard, performed by Dierks Bentley

The odds say something sung by Tim McGraw, but "Before He Cheats" was the sort of monster hit that can't be ignored.

Best Country Album

"Long Trip Alone" by Dierks Bentley

"These Days" by Vince Gill

"Let It Go" by Tim McGraw

"5th Gear" by Brad Paisley

"It Just Comes Natural" by George Strait

It almost feels like an Obama vs. Clinton choice. Newish talent versus your father's C&W. Paisley and Bentley vs. Strait and McGill, with McGraw the megastar in the middle. By virtue of our age, we're going with Bentley. Or Paisley. Man, this one's tough.

jgross@statesman.com; 912-5926