Austin-American Statesman > Weather Watch > Archives > 2008 > February
February 2008
Texas tops nation in dangerous weather, study says
Texas is No. 1 in the nation in many types of severe weather, according to a report released today as part of Severe Weather Awareness Week, which ends tomorrow.
According to the report from the Governor’s Division of Emergency Management, Texas generally leads the nation in the number of tornadoes each year. Since 1950, the state has averaged 139 tornadoes per year — a total of 7,319 since 1953. Texas also sees the most fatalities, injuries and damage associated with tornadoes — including 504 deaths since 1953 — the report says.
The state usually leads the nation in flash flood deaths per year, the report says. Texas had 45 flood-related deaths in 2007.
Texas is second in the nation in lightning fatalities, behind Florida, according to the report.
Texas is most often struck by thunderstorms, hail storms, straight line winds and tornadoes during the spring and early summer, the report says.
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A nice, calm day, but fire danger lurks
It was a chilly morning (it dipped down to 23 degrees at the airport just before 4 this morning), but it will warm up nicely this afternoon to the mid-to-upper 60s.
An official with Texas Forest Service says today’s wildfire risk is pretty low, after fires burned about one quarter of a million acres across the state in the last two days. The forecast for next week, however, indicates we could see more of the dry conditions that contribute to the start of fires, said Sandra Taylor, a fire prevention specialist with Texas Forest Service.
A string of new fires started yesterday across Central Texas and the rest of the state. A fire in Blanco County burned 150 acres as of last night when it still was not contained. A fire in Caldwell County burned 40 acres and threatened 12 mobile homes before it was contained last night. Small fires also occurred in Bell County and Florence.
“Today will be a better day,” Taylor said. “Even though we’re going to have a low humidity, we’ll still have the winds. So that doesn’t mean there’s not going to be fires, it just means we should be able to handle them a little better.”
Taylor said we can expect these conditions to stick around for about another month until we get some warmer weather and some greening of grasses.
Reader Melanie Plemons, who lives in Jarrell, captured this video of a fire in a field next to her Sonterra neighborhood.
If you ever have a weather-related video you’d like to submit, send the YouTube link to Robert Quigley at rquigley@statesman.com.
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Weather to turn from perfect to near-perfect
Afternoon update
It hit 91 degrees this afternoon at Camp Mabry, breaking a 90-year-old record for the date, and the day isn’t over. The previous record for this date was 89 degrees, set in 1918.
We’ve also broken a 54-year-old record at the airport by hitting 88 degrees, breaking the record of 87 degrees.
The all-time record high for February was set at Austin-Bergstrom in 1996, when we hit 101 degrees.
Earlier
After hitting 81 degrees yesterday at Camp Mabry, we’re on target to hit about 85 degrees today, without a cloud in the sky.
A cold front will move through the area tonight, kicking up the wind and dropping the temperature by about 20 degrees, but a high tomorrow of 66 degrees doesn’t sound too bad. We could live in Buffalo, N.Y., where the high tomorrow is going to be 34, and there’s a 100 percent chance of snow in the forecast.
Our cold front will not bring any snow, but it will get downright chilly (at least for a Texan) overnight Tuesday. The low Wednesday morning is expected to be near freezing. There’s no moisture at all in the forecast, so ice will not be a problem.
The rest of the week looks like a gem, with cool mornings and afternoons warming up to the upper 60s and lower 70s.
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Cold front could bring much-needed rain
A cold front is moving into the area, and the National Weather Service says that will bring Gulf moisture into Central Texas over the next two days.
There’s a 30 percent chance of rain today, a 40 percent chance tonight and a 50 percent chance of rain tomorrow, including the possibility of thunderstorms, the weather service says.
Central Texas could use the rain. So far, it has been a relatively dry year. Since Jan. 1, there has only been 1.94 inches of rain at the airport, a deficit of 1.6 inches. Only 1.28 inches of rain has been recorded at Camp Mabry in 2008, a deficit of 1.94 inches.
Despite the chance for rain, the cold front won’t bring much “cold.” The highs throughout the next seven days are expected to remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Even if it doesn’t rain tonight, the clouds will probably ruin our last chance to see the full lunar eclipse.
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Red flag warning for Austin area
The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for the Austin area until 6 p.m. because of high winds and low moisture.
The warning means that weather conditions are ripe for grass fires that are difficult to control so outdoor burns should be avoided.
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Good many flights late; some canceled
Now that some storms have run through Austin-Bergstrom as well as Dallas-Fort Worth, you really can’t count on your flight arriving or leaving on time. A good many are late, and American Airlines is canceling more flights to and from Dallas.
Check www.abia.org or your airline for your flight status, and if yours has been canceled, try to rebook now rather than wait with everybody else in a long line.
Good luck.
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Stormy afternoon ahead
The rains have arrived heralding the arrival of a front system expected to produce severe weather into this evening. Heaviest rains are being reported in the southeast corner of Travis County and are headed northeast.
The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for Central Texas until 7 p.m. today.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to move through Central Texas throughout the afternoon with some severe storms bringing large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain, according to the National Weather Service. Drivers are advised to proceed with caution on wet slippery roads and highways.
“The thunderstorms are developing as we speak,” said forecaster Christi Mitchell. Thunderstorms are expected to arrive at 4 p.m., with between half an inch and an inch of rain expected. Forecasters expect large hail and 50 mph winds.
After 7 p.m., the thunder and 25 mph winds will continue, but the rain should cease, Mitchell said.
Tonight the chance of showers and thunderstorms drops to around 40 percent with a low around 43. Sunday will bring sunny weather with a high near 72 and a mostly clear night with a low of 40.
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Storms having an impact on flights
So far, the biggest impact of today’s weather at Austin-Bergstrom is on flights to and from Dallas, where it’s been thunderstorming. That means some planes (although not all) are arriving in Austin and departing again for Dallas an hour or so late. And the scheduled 3:25 American Airlines departure for Dallas has been canceled. Be sure to check your flight before you head to the airport. And, remember: Rain like we’re having right now at 2:20 p.m. doesn’t disrupt flights. But lightning and high winds do.
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Severe weather, chance for tornadoes tomorrow
Austin motorists heading home for the weekend this afternoon might run into a bit of rain, but the real threat for severe weather won’t come until tomorrow, KVUE chief meteorologist Mark Murray said.
A front that moved into Central Texas this afternoon is expected to produce isolated thunderstorms this evening, mostly east of Interstate 35, Murray said.
By about 10 a.m. on Saturday, Murray said an upper level disturbance is expected to move in, combined with the front and possibly produce severe weather.
“The biggest threat is going to be from large hail,” Murray said. “There’s also risks of isolated tornadoes.”
Murray said up to 2 inches of rain is predicted to fall over the weekend.
He said the severe weather will likely move out of Central Texas by Saturday evening.
“Sunday looks pretty nice,” he said. “It should clear out with a high near 60.”
No precipitation is expected on Sunday.
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Hail, heavy rain, chance of tornadoes expected tonight, tomorrow
A cold front and a storm system expected to move into Central Texas this afternoon could bring some large hail, damaging winds and even a risk for tornadoes in the next two days, according to the National Weather Service.
Predictions indicate that we’ll start to feel the effects of the storm system by this evening with some rain and possibly large hail. We could see winds and even an isolated tornado through Saturday afternoon and evening, when the system is expected to move out of the area, said Constantine Pashos, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s office in New Braunfels.
Areas of Central Texas could see as much as 2.5 inches of rainfall in the next two days, he said.
“This will definitely be the most significant rainfall since probably October,” Pashos said.
After the storm system passes, temperatures are expected to warm up to the 60s, he said.
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Wintry weather to make comeback this weekend
Areas of the Hill Country could see freezing rain, sleet or even snow this weekend after a cold front moves in Friday morning, according to forecasters with the National Weather Service.
The rest of the area is likely to see some rain this weekend that could provide some relief for Austin, which has received a total of less than an inch of rain so far this year.
“The cold front coming through on Friday morning could drop temperatures pretty good,” said Constantine Pashos, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s office in New Braunfels. “And this looks a little more serious as far as rainfall (than predictions for rain earlier this week). It’s still a little bit debatable as far as the intensity, but as far as getting a few hundredths, that’s for sure.”
Whether this weekend’s rain will keep away the red flag warnings, which indicate that conditions are ripe for the quick spread of wildfires, it all depends on how much rain we get.
“It may delay it a little bit, but with a little bit of rain, that should dry out fairly quickly within two or three days, and then it’s possible that mid to late next week, there could be more threats,” Pashos said.
High temperatures for today and tomorrow are in 70s with lows in the 50s.
After temperatures drop to the 30s this weekend, a warming trend is expected for early to mid next week, bringing temperatures back up to the 60s.
Much-needed rain is in the forecast
A low-pressure system is expected to move into Central Texas today, bringing an area that is thirsty for any measurable rain some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Austin has received a total of less than an inch of rain this year, and hasn’t seen a good soaking since October.
But the rain system is moving into the southern half of Texas today, which means there’s a chance that some areas in Central Texas could receive as much as an inch of rain today and tonight, according to the National Weather Service. In Austin, the chance of rain today is 60 percent through 5 p.m., the weather service says. There’s a 50 percent chance of rain tonight, and a 60 percent chance tomorrow morning, but the rain chances drop off tomorrow afternoon.
The weather service says thunderstorms are likely to be included in the mix, especially today. It will stay warm today, with a high reaching the mid 70s, the weather service says. As the cold front pushes through tonight, temperatures will steadily drop. Tomorrow’s high is expected to be in the lower 60s with gusty winds behind the front in the afternoon.
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Fire risk expected to ease; ‘early spring’ pattern emerges
Although a red flag warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for today — the fourth consecutive day in which conditions are ripe for the quick spread of fires — tomorrow’s forecast looks like it might break that pattern.
The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. today and has issued warnings every day since Tuesday.
“It’s pretty unusual to have four straight days of red flag conditions,” said Monte Oaks, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s New Braunfels office.
Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s are expected this weekend, roughly in accordance with seasonal averages.
“The weekend is looking pretty mild, and we’re starting to head our way to an early spring pattern,” Oaks said.
There aren’t any major cold fronts in the extended forecast, although a weaker cold front could move through early Wednesday morning, bringing some potential for rain and also the return of red flag conditions.
“We’re still waiting on (significant) rain,” Oaks said. “We’re not seeing any great indicators of significant rainfall, just seeing a lot of potential for drizzle, that type of thing.”
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Cold front blowing in again
The National Weather Service has put much of Central Texas under a red flag warning until 10 tonight because a cold front pushing through the area will bring in dry, heavy winds.
A red flag warning means conditions are ripe for fires that would be hard to control. The cold front is expected to move through the area late this morning, and winds will pick up to between 15 mph and 30 mph, with guests up to 40 mph, the weather service says.
The winds will be so strong that the area is also under a wind advisory until 7 p.m. The weather service says the winds can make driving difficult and that people should secure trash cans, lawn furniture and any other lightweight objects.
Amid all this, it will be warm. The high today is expected to reach the low 80s. The record high for this date, set in 1943 at the airport, is 83 degrees. The cold front will cool us off slightly, but it is expected to remain around 70 degrees each afternoon for the rest of the week.
Compounding the fire danger, the weather service points out that dead vegetation provides plenty of fuel for big grass fires. The weather service asks people to use extreme caution to avoid sparking a fire by discarding lit cigarettes or burning trash.
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No immediate end in sight for fire risk
Until we see some measurable rainfall, Central Texas will remain at risk for wildfires, according to forecasters with the National Weather Service.
“The grasses and the brush are already dead because of the wintertime and the lack of moisture, so any spark can lead to a raging fire,” said meteorologist Pat McDonald. “We’re going to need significant rainfall for these conditions to improve or go away.”
But little rainfall is in the forecast for our area this week.
Temperatures today are expected to reach a high of 82 degrees, which will drop down to 65 degrees overnight.
A cold front is expected after sunrise Tuesday morning, which could drop highs to about 75 degrees in the afternoon and down to the upper 30s overnight.
A red flag warning, which alerts firefighters of an increased risk for wildfires, is expected to be issued for all day Tuesday because of the dry conditions in the forecast.
The rest of the week is expected to be sunny and dry with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s.
“We’re looking at near- or slightly above averages on temperatures, which is a good thing, but below averages on rainfall, which is not such a good thing,” McDonald said.
As of Saturday, 75 wildfires had destroyed 60 homes and structures and burned at least 70,000 acres across the state. Last weekend, Gov. Rick Perry sought federal aid for those places that have been affected, including the 184 counties — among them, Hays, Travis and Williamson — that his office identified as being threatened or affected by wildfires in the past week.
Hays County Sheriff Allen Bridges recommends people reduce the fire fuel around homes by mowing weeds and grass, and keeping brush and debris piles away from structures.
Additional material from the Associated Press.
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