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Odds maker: What does Steve Jobs have in store for Macworld?
It’s been a year since Steve Jobs dropped some tight science on the world with the announcement of the iPhone. We all know what happened after that fateful January day. But now, everyone is expecting Apple’s head turtleneck to unveil something just as mindblowing when he takes the stage tomorrow at Macworld (around 11 a.m.).
There’ve been plenty of rumors about what will be presented. A few of those rumors have fallen by the wayside with recent product announcements. For instance, a hardware refresh to Apple’s hardcore Mac Pro desktop last week means it probably means there won’t be any Mac Pro hardware updates at the press event.
I’m borrowing a page from “Pardon the Interruption” and offering odds on what will be unveiled tomorrow. Keep in mind, I’m not truly psychic. My powers of perception are no more mystical than, say… Mystikal’s.
Chances Steve Jobs will…
…unveil an ultra-portable version of the Macbook: 77 percent. Rumors sprouting from supposed manufacturing leaks and patent applications seemed to point to a portable sub-notebook device with a 13-inch screen and Wi-Max Internet capabilities (more on that below). As with the leaked images of the most recent iPod Nano (the “Fatty”), these rumors have been too persistent to ignore. If Apple doesn’t debut some kind of mini-notebook, a lot of people are going to be disappointed. This laptop would, of course, be sleek and super-thin and would expand on Apple’s touch-pad capabilities with new goodies.
…announce Wi-Max or 3G high-speed wireless Internet capabilities in all its future devices: 80 percent. This one I’m most sure about given banners already seen at Macworld bearing the slogan, “There’s something in the air.” The service, in our wildest dreams, would be free, subsidized by hardware costs as it is with the high-speed wireless Internet used on Amazon’s Kindle reader. I would imagine this would also be a big selling point for the next iPhone.
…introduce a new version of the iPhone: 20 percent. This one’s unlikely. Remember the uproar that followed when Steve Jobs dropped the price of the iPhone by $200? Imagine the wrath of current iPhone owners if Apple introduced a whole new piece of iPhone hardware. Instead, expect to see free operating system enhancements to the current iPhone, including new iPhone software from Apple and outside developers like Google. I’d expect to hear an announcement of the long-awaited 3G- (or Wi-Max) capable iPhone for later this year.
…introduce a new version of the Apple TV: 30 percent. Again, I don’t think Apple is ready to redesign the hardware on this one even though some media streamers introduced at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show trump the little silver box in capabilities and price. Instead, expect to see more software updates for the underperforming device, expanding its capabilities and adding movie rentals and other next-gen iTunes features.
…announce the end of digital rights management (DRM) on iTunes: 68 percent. Call me an optimist, but I think that with Sony BMG’s recent announcement that it’s dropping copy protection on digital music, the ball is in Apple’s court to do away with its own DRM. At the very least, Apple needs to do this to stay competitive with Amazon’s growing MP3 store.
…announce movie rentals for iTunes: 100 percent. This one’s a sure bet with Steve Jobs hustling to get more movie studios on board. I think the studios are a lot more willing to go with him on movie rentals than they are on movie purchases.
…announce his retirement from Apple: 0 percent. Are you kidding? Dude’s on a roll.
…announce a tablet Mac/touch-screen computer: 5 percent. Unlikely. Even the rumormongers don’t think this one’s ready for prime-time.
…announce that the Beatles library is available on iTunes: 70 percent. This rumor’s been around so long that people have almost forgotten about it. Led Zeppelin’s greatest hits CD is on iTunes as is the new Radiohead (older albums are expected to follow from EMI). The Beatles are the last great holdout and Paul McCartney said late last year that a digital release was imminent. Macworld would be the place for that announcement to be made.
What are your predictions? Comment below and let’s see how we did tomorrow after the Steve Jobs keynote.
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